MANILA, Philippines -- Cracks in the administration’s Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats, the majority coalition that has controlled the House of Representatives for two decades, appear to sunder the monolithic alliance, as the chamber faces a possible vote to unseat Speaker Jose de Venecia and end his 12-year leadership.
The charge is being led by Davao City Rep. Prospero Nograles, whose group claims to have lined up the signatures of 138 congressmen on a manifesto initiated by Kampi (Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino) -- the other main pillar of the majority coalition -- demanding change in the House leadership.
Nograles’ bid is the first serious threat to De Venecia’s grip on the speakership. De Venecia is defiant. He wants a plenary vote of warm bodies, not just signatures, to prove his rival has more than the 121 votes needed to unseat him.
Last July, De Venecia faced down a bid to depose him from Rep. Pablo Garcia of Cebu, who failed to muster the needed numbers.
Monday’s possible vote, unless averted, presents the explosive ingredients to spark the disintegration of the majority that has protected President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo from three impeachment attempts since the 2004 presidential election.
The coalition is seething with tensions generated by the alleged involvement of Ms Arroyo’s husband, Jose Miguel Arroyo, in the now-canceled $329-million National Broadband Network project with China’s ZTE Corp., and the bribery allegations made by Jose “Joey” de Venecia III, the Speaker’s son, who had also vied for the project.
Clash of dynasties
The competing interests of the First Gentleman and the Speaker’s son in the project have led to clashes between the two leading and most powerful political dynasties in the country. The clashes are believed to be at the heart of the moves to unseat the Speaker.
Presidential intervention or nonintervention in the bid of Nograles to oust De Venecia is crucial to its success or collapse.
It is significant that two of the President’s sons, Pampanga Rep. Juan Miguel “Mikey” Arroyo and Camarines Sur Rep. Diosdado “Dato” Arroyo, have signed the manifesto initiated by Kampi -- the President’s own party in alliance with Lakas of De Venecia -- expressing loss of confidence in the Speaker.
Ms Arroyo is not stopping her sons from pushing the manifesto, claiming (according to Secretary Cerge Remonde) that they had “the right to speak as congressmen, the same way Joey de Venecia can’t be stopped by his father” from further testifying at the Senate on the ZTE deal.
This has created a family-driven standoff and feud that now threatens the breakup of the majority coalition in the House.
Signal from Palace
When Ms Arroyo refuses to hold back her sons from pushing the manifesto, for whatever reason, that neutrality speaks volumes of her lack of enthusiasm for the retention of the speakership by De Venecia.
De Venecia is in trouble despite his claim that Ms Arroyo had assured him of her support in a meeting with her on Thursday.
On the contrary, the Palace disclaimer of the President’s hands-off attitude has emboldened Ms Arroyo’s sons and Nograles’ supporters to claim that it was a signal for them to go ahead with their campaign to unseat De Venecia.
President has last word
In the history of the fight for speakership in the Philippine legislature, the President has the last word in who stays as speaker. She makes or unmakes the Speaker. She and her family have been wounded by the feud with the De Venecias over the ZTE affair. This is the element that will decide the fate of the Speaker.
Remonde’s statement denying knowledge of the agreement between the President and the Speaker on Thursday (“We, in Malacañang, observe the policy that we don’t meddle in the internal affairs of the House of Representatives”) cannot be taken at face value.
Imminent beheading
It is ominous for De Venecia that the mechanism for his beheading has already been put in place.
The 21-member Liberal Party has declared support for Nograles in his efforts to seek reforms in the House. The LP is one of the parties forming the majority coalition.
Camarines Sur Rep. Luis Villafuerte, Kampi president, said the LP decision had made unstoppable the campaign to unseat De Venecia. He said that all the parties were united behind Kampi’s campaign.
Villafuerte said the Nationalist People’s Coalition, the Nacionalista Party, and half of the party-list representatives had joined Kampi in expressing loss of confidence in the Speaker.
Price to pay
The removal of De Venecia puts the future of Lakas in doubt as the cornerstone of the majority coalition. The administration is bound to pay a heavy price from the fallout.
The fallout is likely to be more damaging to Lakas and the administration than to De Venecia.
The administration would not lose so much as a valuable ally in its bid to muster congressional support to overcome political crises. Rather, it would earn an enemy that could inflict heavy political damage stemming from De Venecia’s son’s continuing exposes on the ZTE scandal.
They know too much
With the information they hold about the ZTE controversy, the De Venecias, as a political enemy, can hold the administration hostage in a balance of terror.
The removal of De Venecia could trigger an extensive realignment of the majority coalition in the House. It could mark the breakup of Lakas as the centerpiece of the coalition.
